Spring Training--Quick Darts.

ITEM! The inevitable begins. I see a murder-suicide involving Dusty Baker one of these days. (However, the gunman is going to be Mark Prior.)

ITEM! Baseball Prospectus and CHONE projections are out, and a few things are apparent, if you take these at face value (which, of course, you should not):

1) Holy fucking shit is the AL East a loaded division this year.

The Orioles stand to get better if not win more games, the Blue Jays are a pesky .500ish squad for as long as they choose not to trade Roy Halladay (note: not long), and as for the top three, we needn't say more.

The Yankees and Sox project well in both models, as well as within two games of each other in both models. This could be a good 'un.

2) The NL East ain't shabby either.

Three good teams, one good race, one big problem (it's the National League) which renders them all 91-87 win teams.

3) These ain't your daddy's Angels. Unless your daddy remembers when they sucked.

I saw an earlier version of the BP model where the A's won the division with 82 or 83 wins...did someone just bitch out, or was Bobby Abreu that much of a game changer? (Him and his awesome glove, I mean?)

In any case, the West seemingly ain't what it used to be, but the Angels look just good enough for it, although a Matt Holliday-enhanced Oakland youth movement seems dangerous to me. They do look up to another first-round playoff loss though. The more things change...

4) Best race in baseball: the race for 6th place!

CHONE has the Astros losing a measly 90 games to be their lowest ranked and least-winning team; BP sees something even more exciting, with the 'Stros and Pirates battling all year long to delve the depths, and the Pirates finally losing 98 games to beat Houston out. Woo!

(Additionally, this is why I like BP's model: it doesn't have everything falling or rising to the mean and instead actually takes some chances.)

Also, the Indians are back. Hard luck season last year, no surprise there for me. Will I pick Grady Sizemore for MVP for the 4th straight year? Wait and see.



ITEM! Josh Beckett is back....to KILL! Well, this remains to be seen, but when you consider just how early the misfortunes of 2008 began for my namesake, it's amazing he had the season he did.

If he stays healthy enough, perhaps taking a DL vacation in July, Beckett's 2009 will make up for any problems Jon Lester has bouncing back from a hefty innings load in 2008. If he doesn't, there are problems.

If both are healthy and powerful, and I say this with respect to forces acquired by the New York Blackwaters, there will be no AL East race. That's not so much a big statement as it is a big if.

ITEM! The Boston media, like the rest of us, has no idea how the Bard-Wakefield pairing is going to work out, but hey, one start, so good?

Ideally, I'd like to see Varitek take a few Wakefield starts (partially in penance) and a more flexible, 60/40 arrangement between the two catchers, but we'll see how Tito does making actual decisions about catching for the first time. If anyone can balance 'Tek's ego and pride to the realities of age, it's him.



ITEM! Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger, or Scott Boras will lose clientele ultimately. At some point, you just can't invent more generous offers and bullshit and waste your client's time. $25 million this year, the possibility of $20 million next, but year #2 is on you? Sign. Play problem-free for a season, Manny, and mayhaps you'll get an actual multi-year deal in 2010. Don't, and, see Abreu, Bobby.

ALDS GAME 4: The light's fading.

Yeah, that was a bad loss. Bad enough that the very dependable automated typewriter the Globe secretly replaced Dan Shaughnessy with after the 2004 season broke down:

"Fenway Park is already a morgue. Six feet under. So bad. So bad. So bad. So bad. So bad. So bad. So bad. So bad. @@)(#*)!)($_@#. Crush. Kill. Destroy."*

Tim Wakefield was chucking up lobs early and often, although Manny Delcarmen's return to shite form sealed the deal. But on the bright side, it was our best performance against Andy Sonnanstine yet! That'll come in handy when he comes back later in this series. Right?

(Checks pitching match-ups.)

Oh yeah. Right.

This is not 2007, in that this is not "Win one, go home for two." It's win one, pray that something resembling Josh Beckett shows up, then take your chances in Game 7.

It's bad. So bad. So not good. So bad. Tan mal.

*Quote slightly embellished. Could you tell?

Fuck it....just fuck it.

Get ready for Anaheim, people: unless this peppy little Little League team played themselves out in (AGAIN!) coming back from losing the first game in a Red Sox series to winning the series, we ain't taking no flag. What a miserable performance, although biggest demerits go to Wakefield, who had absolutely nothing, and Lopez, whose decision to field a weak dribbler from the side eventually allowed two more runs to score in a game already getting away from the Sox in the 3rd.

Who does Francona go with as his #4 starter in the playoffs? Count my vote for the weak-throwing guy who tips his pitches over the veteran who happened to throw one excellent 8 inning shutout start lodged between two turds. At this point, I'd rather see the shake than another knuckleball for the rest of the season; seriously. I'd almost rather see the Harlem shake for that matter.

Oakland 7, Boston 1, Bottom of 4th Inning.

Dear Clay Bucholz,

How's Triple-A? Lame, no? Kelsey ain't even visiting you, is she? Guess Pawtucket isn't her kinda town, let alone Buffalo or Indianapolis. Anyway, just wanted to tell you to get better soon. Really soon. At least your sometimes catastrophic starts serve a learning purpose.

Yours,
Josh

GAME THIRTY: With apologies to Harburg and Gorney

They used to tell me we were powerful
And I watched us pile up scores
Where there were runners on, we ran them off
Five, six, seven, or more
They used to tell me we could hit
Wins and pennants had came
Why should we scrap for four runs in five whole fucking games?

Once scoreboards ran out of numbers
Under Fenway nights, or sun
They say it’ll get better in summer, but,
Brother, can you spare a run?

Once we laid more pipe than plumbers
So many ways to get it done
Now, who will save poor Timmy Wakefield?
Brother, can you spare a run?

GAME 118: Love of my life since 1995.

I know I loves you, Wake. Winner of 7 of his last 9 starts (and with the weird kinda amazing distinction of getting a decision every time out, which combined with poor run support some games and the fact that a bad knuckleball start is a BAD start swells his ERA and makes his W/L of 14-10 look much worse than it should), Tim played tourniquet last night, and really had to with James Shields on the mound. Tampa Bay is gonna be better sooner than we think. But we've been saying that for 3.5 years. As long as they don't get good any time soon, maybe it'll be Galaga "Challenging Stage" time. But Scott Kazmir's a-coming.

GAMES SIXTY FIVE- SIXTY SEVEN: Sweep*

Barry Bonds (above, in more innocent times) doesn't mean anything to me. I actually remember a time when I didn't want to believe he was juiced (though we all knew it if we thought about it, or weren't from San Francisco) and still defended him as the greatest left fielder of all time; now he's technically the greatest of all time, but we're on the alternate timeline where he becomes a behemoth to crush all records and we'll never know what his natural numbers would be. (My guess: something like Ken Griffey Jr's, which ain't shabby a'tall.) With its focus on the chase for 756*, ESPN remains convinced I give a shit. I don't, not enough to boo or hold signs. The Bonds element of the story would have only been interesting if he was standing of the verge of breaking the record, as it seemed he might when he started the year hot. Or if he'd played left field and tried to play balls off the Monster. That'da been funny.

And now a quick series summary.



ONE: Julian Tavarez goes seven, giving up just two runs. No one hits except the top two of the lineup, but the top two get eight hits and eight RBI, including Dustin Pedroia getting five hits and raising his batting average twenty points in a night.



TWO: Monster Zero twirls an excellent game, then Okajima, then Papelbon, then shutout. Manny hits a homerun. That's it.


THREE: Matt Morris throws pitches that look like this. Red Sox hit accordingly. Wakefield's line doesn't end up so good, and he gives up home run to some guy with a big head. Good enough though, thanks in part to a tough hold by...Joel Piniero?

Next up, more of our "natural" rival. Yee haw.