Spring Training--Quick Darts.

ITEM! The inevitable begins. I see a murder-suicide involving Dusty Baker one of these days. (However, the gunman is going to be Mark Prior.)

ITEM! Baseball Prospectus and CHONE projections are out, and a few things are apparent, if you take these at face value (which, of course, you should not):

1) Holy fucking shit is the AL East a loaded division this year.

The Orioles stand to get better if not win more games, the Blue Jays are a pesky .500ish squad for as long as they choose not to trade Roy Halladay (note: not long), and as for the top three, we needn't say more.

The Yankees and Sox project well in both models, as well as within two games of each other in both models. This could be a good 'un.

2) The NL East ain't shabby either.

Three good teams, one good race, one big problem (it's the National League) which renders them all 91-87 win teams.

3) These ain't your daddy's Angels. Unless your daddy remembers when they sucked.

I saw an earlier version of the BP model where the A's won the division with 82 or 83 wins...did someone just bitch out, or was Bobby Abreu that much of a game changer? (Him and his awesome glove, I mean?)

In any case, the West seemingly ain't what it used to be, but the Angels look just good enough for it, although a Matt Holliday-enhanced Oakland youth movement seems dangerous to me. They do look up to another first-round playoff loss though. The more things change...

4) Best race in baseball: the race for 6th place!

CHONE has the Astros losing a measly 90 games to be their lowest ranked and least-winning team; BP sees something even more exciting, with the 'Stros and Pirates battling all year long to delve the depths, and the Pirates finally losing 98 games to beat Houston out. Woo!

(Additionally, this is why I like BP's model: it doesn't have everything falling or rising to the mean and instead actually takes some chances.)

Also, the Indians are back. Hard luck season last year, no surprise there for me. Will I pick Grady Sizemore for MVP for the 4th straight year? Wait and see.



ITEM! Josh Beckett is back....to KILL! Well, this remains to be seen, but when you consider just how early the misfortunes of 2008 began for my namesake, it's amazing he had the season he did.

If he stays healthy enough, perhaps taking a DL vacation in July, Beckett's 2009 will make up for any problems Jon Lester has bouncing back from a hefty innings load in 2008. If he doesn't, there are problems.

If both are healthy and powerful, and I say this with respect to forces acquired by the New York Blackwaters, there will be no AL East race. That's not so much a big statement as it is a big if.

ITEM! The Boston media, like the rest of us, has no idea how the Bard-Wakefield pairing is going to work out, but hey, one start, so good?

Ideally, I'd like to see Varitek take a few Wakefield starts (partially in penance) and a more flexible, 60/40 arrangement between the two catchers, but we'll see how Tito does making actual decisions about catching for the first time. If anyone can balance 'Tek's ego and pride to the realities of age, it's him.



ITEM! Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger, or Scott Boras will lose clientele ultimately. At some point, you just can't invent more generous offers and bullshit and waste your client's time. $25 million this year, the possibility of $20 million next, but year #2 is on you? Sign. Play problem-free for a season, Manny, and mayhaps you'll get an actual multi-year deal in 2010. Don't, and, see Abreu, Bobby.

Evaluating the Starters. (Starter Jackets, that is.)

Smoothing and spinning the hat I always understood, but why did you have to slam the hat, Jazz? That hurts your scalp, yo. Never understood that. Just for that, get out of my house. Twelve times!



Anyway, with as many starters as the Red Sox are going into this season, what we've got is equivalent to DJ Jazzy Jeff's closet circa 1992...only in some cases, it's circa 1993 but quite clearly 2009. Starter and Reebok Pumps were signs of spoiled youth, clever theft, or just plain "coolness" in my middle school days; nowadays, you can't even pull that look with a straight, or crookedly ironic, face in Williamsburg.

I think the elements of success are in this rotation, but who will be in the front of the closet and who in the back? Let's make the natural comparison



JON LESTER: Custom "MASS APPEAL" Jacket

Clean, simple, and reliable for years to come, it would seem. There are definite innings concerns for him next year, but what can't be denied is that he took a major leap forward. Some regression is very possible; a slide is not likely.

As for the jacket, you can wear it for years to come. It's not retro. It is what it is. Mass appealin'.



JOSH BECKETT: Authentic black Los Angeles Raiders Jacket

The cream of the Starter lot, so as with any old school style, it has a chance of appearing played out. Don't believe it. Beckett has been playing a good year-bad year pattern lately, but his BABIP was up last year while his strikeouts weren't significantly down. I'm not saying he'll pitch a 2007-esque season. Just that he will pitch much closer to that. (AND that 2008 wasn't even much of an off-year.)

If his oblique wasn't ripped to shit, we might be celebrating back to back championships right now, and Beckett knows it. You think he's that type? As one cat who wore this jacket would have put it, Don't believe the hype.



DAISUKE MATSUZAKA: Custom Claw Money Jacket

Is this a great jacket? A hideous swirl of stripes? Something I admire but couldn't possibly wear?

Did Daisuke Matsuzaka have a great season last year? A lucky weird one? Can he actually keep living on the razor's edge? Will he ever become a, gulp, 6-inning pitcher?

In order, my answers: Yes, Yes, Yes, Almost, Somewhat, Yes, Yes. His worst case scenario is better than the best case of pitchers his age. He's gaining confidence in his stuff, even if that confidence takes a most peculiar form: "You don't want to swing? Take your base. Whatever." Even with all the hard-to-watch starts to come, I delight in three more years of Daisuke and hope Boras doesn't screw us out of more.



TIM WAKEFIELD: Old "Pat Patriot" New England Patriots

Wakefield will end the season in the bullpen. The regular season, that is. And that's my optimistic view.

From his earliest days in Pittsburgh, Wakefield looked like a man out of time, and that was when there were still other knuckleballers in the league. Now? Well, not to say it isn't a physical task, but when your back and shoulder are acting up as you throw 65 mph wobblers in, the end is nigh. I hope he's good enough for the early season. I hope that he doesn't obliterate the catching situation. (Varitek, the day you dreaded has come at last...c'mon, catch the dancing ball.)

This jacket looks cool on a young man, meh on an older man, and just old on an old man. God bless Tim Wakefield, but his time is nigh.



JOHN SMOLTZ: Atlanta Braves Jacket

If he succeeds, as PECOTA seems to believe, it'll be the same old Smoltz. If he fails, it'll be the same old injury-prone Smoltz. He'll give all his has any which way. You have any doubts on this? Who do you think we signed here, Steve Avery? Nah, that would never happen.





BRAD PENNY: Simple, clean San Francisco 49ers Jacket/ Hideous Los Angeles Clippers striped jacket

Penny's 2007 was really good. Really, really good. Like David Ortiz's.

Penny's 2008 was really awful, largely due to injury problems. Much, much worse than David Ortiz's. And he's a starting pitcher, so his concerns are more concerning even than those upon a stout slugger.

What are we going to get out of Brad Penny? Simple. Awesomeness. Or awfulness. What, you wanted a prediction?



CLAY BUCHHOLZ: Three-tone Florida Marlins cap

I like teal, in spite of the 1990s and uniforms. I like black. I like white. The mix on this cap? Not so much. Clay's got three plus-plus pitches but needs to learn the mix. AAA for now, kid.




MICHAEL BOWDEN: This Kansas Jackhawks jacket, as worn by this man.

No self-respecting man would wear this jacket. No self-respecting contender relies on a kid like Bowden when he doesn't yet have two solid pitches to rely on. He might have decent results if forced into action this season, but at what cost?



JUSTIN MASTERSON: Space Cadet Uniform (not made by Starter)

This guy is one of the strangest two-way pitchers I've ever seen, and his future is either as a solid starter or an excellent reliever. For now, his value is in the bullpen; if Saito and Ramirez find their comfort zone, though, and any of the current starters are slipping, everything changes.

It's nice to have a full closet, no?

Prediction.

Beckett will be back. His stuff was fine in Game 3 of the ALCS, now it's a matter of command.

Seriously, would you bet against this man? With all that cash, flames, and death around him?

Sox in 6.

Fuck it, we still got Beckett.

Last night I was pissed about...last night, but in the light of day, fuck it.

Fuck that we can't hit Andy Sonnanstine. (So long as he's given strike three on curveballs that dance around the plate while never actually breaking the strike zone....I want laser sensors that actually detect a pitch going over the plate if not robotic umpires, stat.)

Fuck that the Rays celebrate wins like a buncha little leaguers.

Fuck it that this lil' minimally talented douchenozzle jumped up and down in pain on a pitch that actually hit his bat. Guess what it was called?

Fuck it all. You can't win many games when you can only score one unearned run. This will be a mightier lineup with Bay and (perhaps?) Drew rather than the all-"scrappy" team of Ellsbury, Crisp, and Kotsay, who I'm already tired of and kinda missing Bobby Kielty, or even Brandon Moss.



Fuck it, cause we've got Beckett, and he is back. Eight innings, 95 pitches, 7 strikeouts, 3 hits. Second straight very good/excellent start against a top AL team.

I don't know if we're taking this series, because I don't know which Wakefield will show up. But I have an oddly good feeling about our overall perspective with our rotation in the playoffs, two top-notch starters coming righty-lefty (Beckett-Lester), one usually excellent five-six inning pitcher (Matsuzaka), and a crafty veteran who is baffling when on (Wakefield). I feel pretty good about this team, still.

Taking the series would be nice, though.

And on the 21st day, after the 5th loss, they rested.

“When they make the schedule like this, it’s not just that we play 20 in a row, we play (expletive) 8 o’clock getaway games in Oakland (sic), so there’s not enough (complaining) and moaning that goes on to get it changed, I don’t know what the (expletive) we need to do,” said Josh Beckett after a really amazing start spoiled by, you know, a complete game shutout by James Shields.

The schedule has been fucking brutal (you'd be a wee bit cranky if you had to work 20 straight days, no?) and the results have been accordingly flat. Two great starts wasted in a three-game sweep by Tampa Bay (and a winnable one by Tim Wakefield, if the Sox had exploited Garza's allergic reaction to the strike zone a bit more), part of a strange and dramatic death of the offense, which went sharply from an 8-game streak of scoring 5 runs or more to 4, 1, and 0 runs.

Enjoy the day off, Sox. Don't stay up late waiting for GTA IV to come out. And then please, please stop playing like this.

Tampa Bay's for real though, I should note. Let's go on a quick journey through great moments in D'Rays history:



March 9, 1995: Vince Naimola's Tampa Bay group awarded a Major League Baseball franchise.

April 27, 2008: Tampa Bay defeats Boston to end up in a three-way tie for first in the AL East, marking the latest in a season Tampa has ever been in first place.

That's all I've got. Kudos, again.

13 DAYS TO OPENING DAY: Things could be better.

With just a week to go of a Japan-trip truncated spring training, the #1 and #2 starters from last year's playoff rotation for the Sox are down, Schill with a shoulder that mysteriously lacked shoulder contents (team physical be damned), Beckett with a balky back.



Nothing else really stands out that strongly from spring training for the Sox so far, unless you were a Kolbamaniac or magically expected Daisuke not to be throwing 17 pitches an inning. Ellsbury has struggled some, but Coco has barely played. Craig Hansen has kinda sucked, but Papelbon has been sharp and Delcarmen has been sharper. The offense has kinda sucked at scoring runs, but split-split-squad lineup numbers shouldn't be taken seriously.

Not at seriously as I've ended up letting myself take them in these times I didn't bury my head in the sand to hide from spring box scores, anyway.

I hate spring training, truth be told, and am happy the Sox are having a short one this year. The bad news that comes from it is deceptive, the good news is deceptive, and only the injuries can matter. Josh Beckett's back is balky, ergo, I'm not fully happy with the spring results so far.

At least the grill's back on and the taps are working again. Free Pennant Ale for everyone.

2007 AL Cy Young Award: C.C. Sabathia wins.

That's cool.

No, dude, it's totally cool. Yeah, yeah, Beckett was deserving, but that doesn't mean he deserved it, if you follow me, not in a year where the Cy Young candidates were this close. Wins, as anyone who reads Prospectus knows, is a silly, arbitrary statistic, so Beckett having the win lead is less than meaningless. And C.C. pitched, like, five more starts in the regular season. Four complete games. Didn't end up meaning anything that C.C. was tired in the postseason, either.

Boss Vaughn says drinks are on the house for C.C. and any Cleveland fans, and that I am not allowed to make any further belittlement of the excellent Cleveland lefty. Especially not fat jokes, which the proprietor's heard enough of for a lifetime.

We'll fire up the grill too, C.C. Have a light snack:



What?

GAME SIXTY NINE: Cowboy and Indians.

The Texan with the big curveball was doing his thing, and probably coulda kept doing it for another couple innings when the rain came down, the rain came down-down, and when it stopped, the bullpen held the zero in place. Never trust a cowboy amongst [Indian Team Name Franchises]. Beckett even smacked an RBI double to finish his veritable Custer's Revenge on they asses. It wasn't on TBS for some reason, but I GameCast my way through it, and it was fun.



Coco Crisp made the greatest catch ever again, according to Beckett. (My call: not as good as this one.) I shoulda mentioned his weird power surge yesterday, especially since I still want Crisp to thrive as a Sox, and as one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball, he has a lot more value than people think even when he's struggling. I heard he's batting .350 over his last few games, though. That's also worthwhile.



After tonight's rubber match, it's off to where the pets go for a series with the San Diego Celibates; the West Coast trip concludes in Seattle, where Beckett will be back to take down the Seattle Poseidons. When hopefully I'll have recovered from the spell of Gregg Easterbrook-like team renaming syndrome I'm suffering. No word yet on if the team will continue to the Dulles afterwards.

GAME FIFTY-ONE: Itsoweezee (Hot)

Well they are, ain't they? Josh Beckett is undefeatable right now, putting in an impressive outing sans rust. Hideki Okajima continues to bring me joy as an unlikely second closer. Kevin Youkilis (whose blog is up; check the sidebar links) has two hitting streaks going--regular and Jim Rice-ian (tied the should-be Hall Of Famer yesterday with his 8th straight multi-hit game...wow.) And as an added bit of fun, the New York Post is having Yankee-related fun! Compare/contrast:



A) The blonde A-Rod (probably) cheated on his wife with. Picture might not give you the best view, but on the 1-10 scale, she's not exactly Bo Derek.



B) A-Rod with wifey Cynthia from the cl(ass)y Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue.

Compare: They're both blonde.

Contrast: Cynthia is HOT. Aren't affairs best as an opportunity to cheat with someone nothing like your girl or upgrade?

Man, yesterday the Yankees give up a game by errors and give up their first steal of home since, like, Jackie Robinson in the '55 World Series even the AL home run leader is slumping. I'm feeling a bit of Yankee pity.

No, wait, that's heartburn. Shouldn't have gone with the spicy rice and hot sauce on the halal plate today.

GAME THIRTY ONE: Beckett= Victory

This is getting amazing. Thanks to Beckett's 7th win in 7th starts, the Red Sox's record now stands at 21 Becketts and 10 Anthony Youngs, 11 Becketts over .500, 6 Becketts ahead of the Yankees, who are admittedly showing a pulse: 7-3 in their last 10 games, same as the Sox. Dustin Pedroia is also showing a pulse, esp. with his three-run HR, and slumping Julio Lugo had two hits; if J.D. Drew comes out of his slump (remember when he was carrying this team?) maybe the offense will really be clicking. And yes, I'm saying that after a 9-run effort. It was Victor Zambrano, yo.



Oh, hey, here's an off-topic laugh.

Quick story. It's game three of a Patriots' Day series against the Yankees at Fenway, April 2001, and the Yankees, after losing the first two, are beating the Sox into submission. One plus to this is that me and my Yankee fan friend Nick can move into the vacant dugout seats, then brand new. The combination of Natty Light, the frustration of the first two games, and too much direct sunlight, inspires my friend to pull a Fenway faux pas: shouting "Nomar, you suck!" as Mr. Garciaparra came into the Red Sox dugout. We heard him mutter "Fucking Yankee fans..." as he tailed his way in. No surprise. No one expects Nomar to ignite a screaming match.



But then...out comes Sox supersub Rickey Henderson! To jaw with my friend for like four minutes. (Well, it was a one-sided jawing. To Nick's credit, I dunno how I would defend his actions to a Hall Of Famer.) The disappointment? Rickey didn't use the third person on himself at all.

Sigh. Josh doesn't like it when Rickey disappoints Josh. On the plus side, maybe this means Rickey will sign with the Newark Eagles again and I'll have an excuse to see some independent league baseball again, like when I saw Newark v. Bridgeport in the very very nice Bridgeport, CT stadium. Bonus fun: Bridgeport DH Jose Offerman, the free agent who essentially replaced my beloved Mo in Boston, went 0-4 with 3 Ks. Somehow Minnesota brought him back to the majors anyway. If Offerman can be retread once, Rickey deserves a ninetieth opportunity. And may I suggest no matter who signs him, he wear this cap?

GAME TWENTY: Mighty Casey has...hit a grand slam?

Wily Mo Pena, who I still believe could have a very good future ahead of him and currently in his 11th season at age 25, has been the ultimate Three True Outcomes hitter so far this young season. It's either HOME RUN (or extra base hit), WALK (not that frequently) or STRIKE OUT (very, very frequently, in the midst of a .150 start), with a few token accidental singles thrown in for fun. He is a mighty, mighty man who could probably lift David Ortiz, and if necessary, break his back over his knee; we'll hope it never comes to this.

Until yesterday. 8th inning, three on, O's closer Chris Ray (who had a rough time against the Yankees a few series ago in giving up an entire ninth inning rally with two outs, including A-Rod's first walkoff of the year) on the mound, showing just how badly the Orioles wanted this game. Wily Mo's up because Jason Varitek was IBB'd to a vacant first base.



Fastball; Ray's best pitch, Wily Mo's favorite pitch. Straight ball, he hit very good, curve ball, bats are afraid. Is very bad to throw Wily Mo a fastball that catches the plate. (Insert more Major League quotes here.)

The bat and the ball collide in mid-air. BANG.

(Waiting for ball to land.)

(Still waiting.)

(Forget it. Grand slam. Sox take first lead of the game, and hold it.)

Beckett is 1/4 of the way to 20 wins, Boston's the best in the bigs, and the Yankees made Kei Igawa the majors' highest paid long reliever for now. When Jeff Karstens is taking your place in the rotation, you know things are going badly. Steinbrenner's gonna pull some old school Steinbrenner shit soon. Unearth the corpse of Billy Martin, stat. Shame the Yankees might line up Wang and Pettite and no one else, as today's rain might shorten this series to two games.

Reclusive millionaire Howard Phillip Hughes looked like a rookie pitcher yesterday. No real judgments worth making here. This is also the last time I will use that nickname on young Phil because I'm afraid I could become Chris Berman at any minute, and I don't want to be annoying and overweight even if I'd love to be overpaid.

One door to close: Gary Thorne= moron.

By the way, Willy Mo's brute strength could come in handy if the Red Sox ever take full vengeance for Bill "Spaceman" Lee. (Note: break Chien-Ming Wang's arm; taking out Hughes before he's shown anything is cruel, and possibly unnecessary.) We really do have to right the score for the original Rocket Man. At the same time, it's almost cool to imagine a time when baseball brawls got so big, you could intentionally wound your opponent. Manny should keep a shiv in one of his red dreadlocks.

GAME SEVEN: Ball four...ball eight...

Got to watch all of one inning of this game because that inning was the first, and it took all of my lunch break, minus the time it takes to get from 53rd Street to the ESPNZone in Times Square, where I can always stand around the arena arcade (fix the goddamn MoCap Boxing, ya lazy bastards! Great game and the greatest video game workout since World Track Meet...plus, you can't cheat, unlike World Track Meet. (Oh yeah, act like you didn't jump off the mat on the high jump and pound the Power Pad with your hands when you were racing Cheetah.

Anyway, the awfulness of Jeff Weaver's start cannot be understated. No command whatsoever, to the point that it's amazing he didn't start off with eight walks...the Red Sox were doing him a favor in actually getting hits off him. He could have been out in the first inning with a little more luck. (And if Dustin Pedroia didn't show off his, um, warning track power, as he finally got his first at-bat...making the last out...of the first inning.) It could have been like this classic 2003 game, and Weaver's performance might have reminded one of this one from the 2003 Fall Classic.

Command= none.

Strike throwing: little. Something like 22 of his 38 pitches in the 1st inning were balls, maybe more...look it up yourself, this ain't Baseball Prospectus.

(Side note: For non-subscribers to BP, I recommend their BP Radio Podcasts and the free blog, Unfiltered, highly. Their knowledge reigns supreme over nearly everyone's.)

Composure: he made variations on this face quite a lot:



Weed: possible. But I don't inherently believe non-performance enhancing drugs are always a performance detriment. Besides, I doubt Weaver's stash (below, circa 2003) is what it once was.



Rust: Yeah, sure, the Indians and Mariners went a long way between games, and Weaver was supposed to start like six days ago. But it might be worth mentioning that the Mariners are not a good team, saved a loss via some serious craftiness in their aborted series with the Indians, and, oh, the Indians won. (How C.C. Sabathia gave up just one earned run giving up 10 hits is a riddle, though.)

Suck: Jose Vidro is their DH. And bats THIRD. Adrian Beltre's failure is shocking in that never before has a player had a breakout year during his contract year, signed that contract, and proceeded to...never mind. Enjoy, Angels. (Come to think of it, the Jeff Weaver signing was based off ONE GOOD WORLD SERIES, wasn't it? This guy seems like he was an adequate GM more and more as the days go on.)

The best comparison I can give to Weaver's performance, not that the Sox don't deserve credit for their Critical Beatdown, is this guy, before he got glasses:



Oh, Josh Beckett looked amazing, by the way. Those three strikeouts were two weeks worth for Ichiro.

Daisuke "Monster Zero" Matsuzaka v. Ichiro "No Nickname, And No Last Name" (Suzuki) and "King" Felix Hernandez tonight...can't wait. We're gonna be like Oliver Cromwell on that bitch. ICHIRO VERSUS Part #2...coming tomorrow.

GAME ONE, TAKE TWO: Our winning percentage jumps 500 points!

That's more like it. Josh Beckett threw too many pitches in too few innings and was wild (4 walks, or as many as he threw in all of spring training), Mike Lowell committed his year's allotment of errors in one game, and Coco Crisp's bat is co-co-cold, but the Sox got hits when they needed them, and then got some more after that. Beckett gave up all of two hits, overcoming the weird moment where Mike Lowell briefly became Alex Rodriguez (back-to-back errors) with cool and calm; as a commenter noted, this was a HR-free game for the 2003 World Series MVP, and after last year, no HR-free Beckett game will go unwelcome. I feel like we're going to come out of extended spring training...I mean, Kansas City...okay. And following up an awful 7-1 loss with a 7-1 win just gives a nice sense of balance to it all, like we just wiped lame-ass Tad Ghostal off the stage and replaced him with Swingin' Chad.



Pesky Pedroia got on base a bunch, as did the 3-4-5 hitters (9 times!), and if J.D. Drew keeps playing this way, perhaps he'll no longer be called, cough, Nancy. (Although as I told a friend when the signing was something I was still very much against, the nickname seems unfair to the "real" Nancy Drew to me. I'd like to see him try to solve The Curse Of Maiden Hollows without straining an oblique.)



This picture is the only bit of hype I'll give for what we all await with baited breath. (Those are sunglass-replacement contacts, by the way; freaky, no?) Now let us celebrate our first victory of the year with popping, locking, and bad special effects. Wikki, wikki, wikki.