June 2009: In time for June, here comes the Swoon. (Gin and juices, with crushed Xanax on the rim.) Just $2! (Management not responsible for loss of possessions after consumption.)
ITEM!The inevitable begins. I see a murder-suicide involving Dusty Baker one of these days. (However, the gunman is going to be Mark Prior.)
ITEM!Baseball Prospectus and CHONE projections are out, and a few things are apparent, if you take these at face value (which, of course, you should not):
1) Holy fucking shit is the AL East a loaded division this year.
The Orioles stand to get better if not win more games, the Blue Jays are a pesky .500ish squad for as long as they choose not to trade Roy Halladay (note: not long), and as for the top three, we needn't say more.
The Yankees and Sox project well in both models, as well as within two games of each other in both models. This could be a good 'un.
2) The NL East ain't shabby either.
Three good teams, one good race, one big problem (it's the National League) which renders them all 91-87 win teams.
3) These ain't your daddy's Angels. Unless your daddy remembers when they sucked.
I saw an earlier version of the BP model where the A's won the division with 82 or 83 wins...did someone just bitch out, or was Bobby Abreu that much of a game changer? (Him and his awesome glove, I mean?)
In any case, the West seemingly ain't what it used to be, but the Angels look just good enough for it, although a Matt Holliday-enhanced Oakland youth movement seems dangerous to me. They do look up to another first-round playoff loss though. The more things change...
4) Best race in baseball: the race for 6th place!
CHONE has the Astros losing a measly 90 games to be their lowest ranked and least-winning team; BP sees something even more exciting, with the 'Stros and Pirates battling all year long to delve the depths, and the Pirates finally losing 98 games to beat Houston out. Woo!
(Additionally, this is why I like BP's model: it doesn't have everything falling or rising to the mean and instead actually takes some chances.)
Also, the Indians are back. Hard luck season last year, no surprise there for me. Will I pick Grady Sizemore for MVP for the 4th straight year? Wait and see.
If he stays healthy enough, perhaps taking a DL vacation in July, Beckett's 2009 will make up for any problems Jon Lester has bouncing back from a hefty innings load in 2008. If he doesn't, there are problems.
If both are healthy and powerful, and I say this with respect to forces acquired by the New York Blackwaters, there will be no AL East race. That's not so much a big statement as it is a big if.
ITEM! The Boston media, like the rest of us, has no idea how the Bard-Wakefield pairing is going to work out, but hey, one start, so good?
Ideally, I'd like to see Varitek take a few Wakefield starts (partially in penance) and a more flexible, 60/40 arrangement between the two catchers, but we'll see how Tito does making actual decisions about catching for the first time. If anyone can balance 'Tek's ego and pride to the realities of age, it's him.
ITEM! Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger, or Scott Boras will lose clientele ultimately. At some point, you just can't invent more generous offers and bullshit and waste your client's time. $25 million this year, the possibility of $20 million next, but year #2 is on you? Sign. Play problem-free for a season, Manny, and mayhaps you'll get an actual multi-year deal in 2010. Don't, and, see Abreu, Bobby.
It could happen today. And I've gotta say, Finn is right. I'll take no genuine solace from Manny's departure. The only thing uglier than having to trade Manny, however, is having to keep him.
Regarding your performance since the All-Star break, which has been a rapid-fire version of the standard Sox summer swoon, I must say:
You're all better than this. Except maybe Manny Delcarmen. Who hasn't even been bad lately.
Play better or fuck off.
Yours in Christ,
Josh
P.S. for Theo--
This proposed three-way deal of Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay plus prospects sounds like the Nomar Garciaparra trade of 2008: a shake-up trade in which a disgruntled though incredibly talented veteran is traded for less than equal talent in return, to shake up an underachieving team. This armchair GM right here signs off on it.
Not a game the Sox were supposed to win last night, which made it all the sweeter. And the savior was ol' pizza face, nemesis of the dream warriors (legitimately good sequel, this one, much some people fetishize the gay one), and, for a night, strikeout machine. 2.2 IP, 4 K, including 2 with the bases loaded of Lester's mess, and all hope of victory in the balance.
The starting pitching hasn't been sharp, but three in a row by any means is an opportunity to get the ship moving. As for Cleveland, it's been time for Betancourt to close for some time now, even if he hasn't been himself so far this year. Goodbye, Joe Borowski. The next close game we actually lose to Cleveland, I'm gonna miss you.
Rich Harden was very hard to hit, no one has ever swept one of these two-game series in Japan (in three tries), Manny Ramirez still has his hitting shoes on, J.D. Drew did too but apparently came to Japan to play the two games that didn't count instead of the two that did, and we're a long way from Boston. (Three that don't count in the Colosseum with the Dodgers, three that do at Oakland, and then April 8th comes at last.)
Anyway, that was a diversion, if not a real opening. Konichiwa, bitches.
Baseball is played in the afternoon or evening no matter where you live. It is played within the continuous 51 states, including the province of Ontario. It is played from April to October, and very rarely, November.
Bizarroball is played at 6 in the fucking morning EST, an hour only masochists will suffer to wake, and ends while you're sitting in front of your office desk really having to get your ass to work. It is played in March in a land destroyed by monsters between exhibition series, yet Bizarroball games count in the standings.
Baseball pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka is sometimes brilliant, with control problems.
Bizarroball pitcher Elyk Redyns (not to be confused with that comedic and often naked actor) sucks. But he's put in close games instead of mop-up situations, to give up leads! Bizarro!!!!
Baseballer Jonathan Papelbon can be nearly unhittable.
Bizarroballer Nahtanoj Noblepap looked like shit and did everything he could to give up a hard-earned lead in the 10th before holding on. (Noble though his pap might be.)
But ultimately, a very non-bizarro event (J.D. Drew is a late scratch due to a back ailment, apparently having played out his early power for the year with his 2 grand slams in the Japanese League exhibitions...the bastard) put a double bizarroed Brandon Moss into the lineup, one suddenly able to hit major league home runs (his first, off Huston Street, to tie it in the 9th) . And the rest was Manny being Ynnam. A sweet victory snatched from
One strange event we can be certain won't happen tomorrow, again: me waking up early to watch the first half of these games. I needs me my ten hours of beauty sleep, baby, so I looks like this:
One quick post before I'm off to Chicago this Labor Day weekend, for those of you who haven't yet subscribed to Baseball Prospectus. Will Carroll reports that "As expected, Manny Ramirez will miss about a week, but won't go on the DL. The Red Sox don't just seem calm about this, they almost seem disinterested." When YES showed Manny sneezing and wincing afterwards at the game yesterday, it's was not a good sign: this brightens my day up a bit.
Buster Olney noted in his blog yesterday that the Red Sox have one of the worst April schedules: 14 out of 26 games on the road, 15 games against teams that finished over .500 last year, including home and away series with the Yankees. (One at the Stadium; wonder if my least favorite Yankee fan will be in attendance.) That's a lot of traveling for the beginning of the year, when the team is getting to know its strengths and weaknesses, finding its footing, and getting Julian Tavarez to stop killing the teenagers of Elm Street in their sleep; maybe some Opening Day field trips are in order?
Kansas City: April 2-5 Good for: BBQ
Sooey! Keep Curt Schilling away and don't let David Ortiz stuff himself into Mo Vaughn/Kevin Mitchell shape! FIORELLA'S JACK STACK is reputedly the best in the area, out in Martin City. And other than groupies, there is nothing else baseball players could possibly want to do in Kansas City. Nor is there anything else for anyone else to do in Kansas City, unless you consider going to a Royals game "doing something." Except when the great Gil Meche is pitching, of course.
Texas (Dallas area): April 4-8 Good for: not much in particular
May as well go for the dumbest event possible: the EDIBLE BOOK FESTIVAL. No, seriously, there is one on April 4th. The Stuffed Tortilla(s) Flat are obviously going to be good, but stay away from the Under the (Jalapeno!) Volcano; the combination of molten cheez and peppers could fuck up J.D. Drew's new macrobiotic diet, to the point that he might hit the DL with broken ribs. That's how hot these nachos are, and what a pussy J.D. Drew is. He'll still hit a ton this year unless he discovers Cholula or water skiing.
Additionally, by this point in the trip, the Red Sox may have eaten themselves into a losing streak. It may be time for something more active.
Toronto: April 17-19 Good for: women
I couldn't tell you if SkyDome nee the Rogers Center is good for beaver shooting, but I can say that Toronto, in my couple times there, has an underrated female populace, especially for those who like their women of indeterminate race. National health care does a body good. If downy innocent Dustin Pedroia hasn't lost his cherry yet, this could be the place. I'm just saying, he looks the part. A place named BODY ENGLISH sounds like a place where even non-baseballers get balled.
Baltimore: April 25-26 Good for: thriving drug trade
There's lots to do, obviously, but you never know when you'll run into some asshole in a Jeter jersey out clubbing. To try something off the beaten path, I'd recommend MY APARTMENT in Greenpoint, Brooklyn. Hey, Manny, if those dreadlocks don't just signify your sympathies with Rastafarian culture, well, I lost the number to my delivery service, but I know a guy who knows a guy. Future Hall Of Famers have to be careful they don't get glaucoma during their playing days, man; ask Kirby Puckett.
