June 2009: In time for June, here comes the Swoon. (Gin and juices, with crushed Xanax on the rim.) Just $2! (Management not responsible for loss of possessions after consumption.)
Red Sox, last 5 games: 2-3. Blue Jays, last 5 games: 0-5. Yankees, last 5 games: 2-3. Red Sox's position: 1st place, by 1 game.
Struggling is swell when everyone else is. (Unless you like actually opening up your lead, that is.) Another Lester start ruined by one bad inning, another Lester loss. Good timing to suck, guys. Now, can we stop?
I knew the Red Sox were better than their start, but I can't say I was sure we were going to make it to .500 in April. But a four-game winning streak squared that off, and the fifth has even brought us up for a gasp of air. Every game of the streak had a particular positive point or three to it as well, like this team is a switchboard being brought alive one flip at a time. Follow me, here:
4/16: Boston 8, Oakland 2
Positives: Tim Wakefield may have staying power in this rotation after all, Lineup scores more than 5 runs for the first time this year with a big 8th inning.
I've seen Wakefield have stuff this good, but never this consistently in the strike zone. 76 strikes out of 111 pitches, and that includes the 8th and 9th innings, where his stuff, and his no-hitter, faded. Also, George Kottaras looks very comfortable catching him, and smacked a nice study double. Nice day of baseball. I'd love to see Wakefield keep it up tonight.
4/17: Boston 10, Baltimore 8
Positives: Huge comeback, a big SIX shutout innings by the bullpen (including 1.2 IP of Ramon Ramirez's current 8.1 IP sans runs; the Coco Crisp trade looks good so far), another 10 runs of offense.
Negatives: Brad Penny, obviously, although his stuff was good, and the curveball Nick Markakis yanked for a grand slam was a good guess, not a bad pitch. And those uniforms. And those horrible, horrible hats. Look, hanging sox hats are for bank robbers, not ballplayers. It's bad enough the road unis feature BLUE sox.
4/18: Boston 6, Baltimore 4
Positives: Youkilis' four hits, Tek's third homerun, Ortiz's multihit game, Josh Beckett except for his shitty inning. The least endearing victory of the streak so far. But a win's a win.
4/19: Boston 2, Baltimore 1
Positives: Jon Lester. Had two bad innings more than two bad starts, but seeing him deal properly certainly eases some of our collective concerns that the innings spike last year will take its toll. (See Hamels, Cole.) This is still something to watch, but man, he threw a great game. And Saito was just good enough to save it.
Patriots Day: Boston 12, Baltimore 1
Positives: Where to begin? An excellent spot start by the tall, bald, white Jamaican, another 3.2 shutout innings by the pen, 4 hits for Pedroia, and a general offensive deluge. But most notably, some power by David Ortiz, in the form of a double and a triple. Opposite field, most promisingly. It could all come back. It could all come together.
Off to the house that George New York Taxpayers built tonight. I'll have notes.
ITEM!The inevitable begins. I see a murder-suicide involving Dusty Baker one of these days. (However, the gunman is going to be Mark Prior.)
ITEM!Baseball Prospectus and CHONE projections are out, and a few things are apparent, if you take these at face value (which, of course, you should not):
1) Holy fucking shit is the AL East a loaded division this year.
The Orioles stand to get better if not win more games, the Blue Jays are a pesky .500ish squad for as long as they choose not to trade Roy Halladay (note: not long), and as for the top three, we needn't say more.
The Yankees and Sox project well in both models, as well as within two games of each other in both models. This could be a good 'un.
2) The NL East ain't shabby either.
Three good teams, one good race, one big problem (it's the National League) which renders them all 91-87 win teams.
3) These ain't your daddy's Angels. Unless your daddy remembers when they sucked.
I saw an earlier version of the BP model where the A's won the division with 82 or 83 wins...did someone just bitch out, or was Bobby Abreu that much of a game changer? (Him and his awesome glove, I mean?)
In any case, the West seemingly ain't what it used to be, but the Angels look just good enough for it, although a Matt Holliday-enhanced Oakland youth movement seems dangerous to me. They do look up to another first-round playoff loss though. The more things change...
4) Best race in baseball: the race for 6th place!
CHONE has the Astros losing a measly 90 games to be their lowest ranked and least-winning team; BP sees something even more exciting, with the 'Stros and Pirates battling all year long to delve the depths, and the Pirates finally losing 98 games to beat Houston out. Woo!
(Additionally, this is why I like BP's model: it doesn't have everything falling or rising to the mean and instead actually takes some chances.)
Also, the Indians are back. Hard luck season last year, no surprise there for me. Will I pick Grady Sizemore for MVP for the 4th straight year? Wait and see.
If he stays healthy enough, perhaps taking a DL vacation in July, Beckett's 2009 will make up for any problems Jon Lester has bouncing back from a hefty innings load in 2008. If he doesn't, there are problems.
If both are healthy and powerful, and I say this with respect to forces acquired by the New York Blackwaters, there will be no AL East race. That's not so much a big statement as it is a big if.
ITEM! The Boston media, like the rest of us, has no idea how the Bard-Wakefield pairing is going to work out, but hey, one start, so good?
Ideally, I'd like to see Varitek take a few Wakefield starts (partially in penance) and a more flexible, 60/40 arrangement between the two catchers, but we'll see how Tito does making actual decisions about catching for the first time. If anyone can balance 'Tek's ego and pride to the realities of age, it's him.
ITEM! Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger, or Scott Boras will lose clientele ultimately. At some point, you just can't invent more generous offers and bullshit and waste your client's time. $25 million this year, the possibility of $20 million next, but year #2 is on you? Sign. Play problem-free for a season, Manny, and mayhaps you'll get an actual multi-year deal in 2010. Don't, and, see Abreu, Bobby.
Smoothing and spinning the hat I always understood, but why did you have to slam the hat, Jazz? That hurts your scalp, yo. Never understood that. Just for that, get out of my house. Twelve times!
Anyway, with as many starters as the Red Sox are going into this season, what we've got is equivalent to DJ Jazzy Jeff's closet circa 1992...only in some cases, it's circa 1993 but quite clearly 2009. Starter and Reebok Pumps were signs of spoiled youth, clever theft, or just plain "coolness" in my middle school days; nowadays, you can't even pull that look with a straight, or crookedly ironic, face in Williamsburg.
I think the elements of success are in this rotation, but who will be in the front of the closet and who in the back? Let's make the natural comparison
JON LESTER: Custom "MASS APPEAL" Jacket
Clean, simple, and reliable for years to come, it would seem. There are definite innings concerns for him next year, but what can't be denied is that he took a major leap forward. Some regression is very possible; a slide is not likely.
As for the jacket, you can wear it for years to come. It's not retro. It is what it is. Mass appealin'.
JOSH BECKETT: Authentic black Los Angeles Raiders Jacket
The cream of the Starter lot, so as with any old school style, it has a chance of appearing played out. Don't believe it. Beckett has been playing a good year-bad year pattern lately, but his BABIP was up last year while his strikeouts weren't significantly down. I'm not saying he'll pitch a 2007-esque season. Just that he will pitch much closer to that. (AND that 2008 wasn't even much of an off-year.)
If his oblique wasn't ripped to shit, we might be celebrating back to back championships right now, and Beckett knows it. You think he's that type? As one cat who wore this jacket would have put it, Don't believe the hype.
DAISUKE MATSUZAKA: Custom Claw Money Jacket
Is this a great jacket? A hideous swirl of stripes? Something I admire but couldn't possibly wear?
Did Daisuke Matsuzaka have a great season last year? A lucky weird one? Can he actually keep living on the razor's edge? Will he ever become a, gulp, 6-inning pitcher?
In order, my answers: Yes, Yes, Yes, Almost, Somewhat, Yes, Yes. His worst case scenario is better than the best case of pitchers his age. He's gaining confidence in his stuff, even if that confidence takes a most peculiar form: "You don't want to swing? Take your base. Whatever." Even with all the hard-to-watch starts to come, I delight in three more years of Daisuke and hope Boras doesn't screw us out of more.
TIM WAKEFIELD: Old "Pat Patriot" New England Patriots
Wakefield will end the season in the bullpen. The regular season, that is. And that's my optimistic view.
From his earliest days in Pittsburgh, Wakefield looked like a man out of time, and that was when there were still other knuckleballers in the league. Now? Well, not to say it isn't a physical task, but when your back and shoulder are acting up as you throw 65 mph wobblers in, the end is nigh. I hope he's good enough for the early season. I hope that he doesn't obliterate the catching situation. (Varitek, the day you dreaded has come at last...c'mon, catch the dancing ball.)
This jacket looks cool on a young man, meh on an older man, and just old on an old man. God bless Tim Wakefield, but his time is nigh.
JOHN SMOLTZ: Atlanta Braves Jacket
If he succeeds, as PECOTA seems to believe, it'll be the same old Smoltz. If he fails, it'll be the same old injury-prone Smoltz. He'll give all his has any which way. You have any doubts on this? Who do you think we signed here, Steve Avery? Nah, that would never happen.
BRAD PENNY: Simple, clean San Francisco 49ers Jacket/ Hideous Los Angeles Clippers striped jacket
Penny's 2008 was really awful, largely due to injury problems. Much, much worse than David Ortiz's. And he's a starting pitcher, so his concerns are more concerning even than those upon a stout slugger.
What are we going to get out of Brad Penny? Simple. Awesomeness. Or awfulness. What, you wanted a prediction?
CLAY BUCHHOLZ: Three-tone Florida Marlins cap
I like teal, in spite of the 1990s and uniforms. I like black. I like white. The mix on this cap? Not so much. Clay's got three plus-plus pitches but needs to learn the mix. AAA for now, kid.
MICHAEL BOWDEN: This Kansas Jackhawks jacket, as worn by this man.
No self-respecting man would wear this jacket. No self-respecting contender relies on a kid like Bowden when he doesn't yet have two solid pitches to rely on. He might have decent results if forced into action this season, but at what cost?
JUSTIN MASTERSON: Space Cadet Uniform (not made by Starter)
This guy is one of the strangest two-way pitchers I've ever seen, and his future is either as a solid starter or an excellent reliever. For now, his value is in the bullpen; if Saito and Ramirez find their comfort zone, though, and any of the current starters are slipping, everything changes.
Red of Surviving Grady has the optimism going today. I just don't feel like writing about what I saw, except to maybe say that if Paul Byrd was going to pitch like that if he came into Game 2 in the 5th inning (or even the 11th), I apologize sincerely to Terry Francona for doubting him. (And just wish we had David Aardsma on the roster instead of Dave Ross.)
Lester wasn't bad, just off. Just one awful inning.
Garza wasn't great, but no one hit. If shallow pop flies to center were home runs, David Ortiz would be having the greatest postseason ever.
It's 9:54 in the fucking morning and just talking about this makes me want a drink.
Are you ready to catch Wakefield fever? (Symptoms include a constant movement in the stomach/bowels similar to the movement on the knuckleball, sharp stabbing pains hit deep to left, and anal bleeding. Better call 1-800 54-GIANT.)
Phew. I was jumping up and down when Jed Lowrie's hit went through, yes, but ultimately, were you celebrating this victory, or were you deeply, deeply relieved?
This wasn't exactly a "Eh, we can lose this one and get 'em the next game" situation, even if Buck Martinez thought this attitude was somehow responsible for a somewhat silent 3rd inning Fenway crowd. (Buck Martinez may have been a better manager than an announcer. I wish I was kidding.)
No, this was a, "We'd really better fucking win now, or we're taking our chances with our 3rd best starter, in Anaheim, having lost two heartbreakers in a row." This was Game 6 of the 1998 NBA finals, where the wounded Chicago Bulls wouldn't have even been able to suit up Scottie Pippen in Game 7. This was everything.
And wow, did it get harrowing. Game 3 was a huge factor in Game 4, because had Papelbon not pitched two innings, there is no way he wouldn't have come in with two on and two out in the 8th, for a four-out save. Instead, Torii Hunter came up big after Masterson crossed up Varitek on a wild pitch I still believe is officially a passed ball. Was Masterson bad last night? Er...kinda; I'd be more willing to give the benefit of the doubt had he not also almost put on the game-winning run with the leadoff double in the 9th. I still have faith in him all the same.
But let's focus on the positive.
Lester was magnificent. The shortest synopsis of this series I can give is: Lackey was very good, Lester was fucking brilliant.
Bay, as he put it himself, was better lucky than good on an end-of-the-bat double, but he was both lucky and good this series.
These shirts are stupid, but so is Papelbon, in just the right way.
We're going to miss Mike Lowell, but he was clearly a shadow of himself. As the two excellent plays Mark Kotsay made in Game 4 show (one a scramble forward that Youk wouldn't have had the speed to make, the other a classic over the shoulder catch), it might be a nice thing to have a center fielder playing first base. As for Youk, I've got no problem with a third baseman playing third base.
Relief pitchers dousing Boston police detective William Dunn. Why? Fuck the police.
Dustin, please, stop. You're hurting Daisuke.
John Henry is a pimp.
We may well have just beat the best team in either league this year, we may not have. It doesn't really matter now. Tampa Bay's legitimacy is unquestionable, as is the AL East's in 2008. They took one flag. Let's take the one that counts.
Another year, another series with Anaheim, a very different set of expectations, the very same result. Substitute a dominant performance from Josh Beckett for a stellar, slowly-building sort of start from Jon Lester, take a 2-run home run from David Ortiz and make it a vital, game-changing 2-run homer by Jason Bay, and the results aren't too different.
It was a taut game where Lester started very shakily, but really found his footing and an absolutely wicked, downright spiteful curveball, as the innings went on. Even the run was unearned.
Justin Masterson's appearance in the 8th wasn't as shaky as it seemed--there was one solid single, one bloop made an out by a diving catch by an apparently-October-loving Jacoby Ellsbury (3-5, 2B, RBI), and one bloop over Youkilis' head made an out by Vlad Guerrero's dumb-assedness. Or forgetfulness that he wasn't fucking with Jason Giambi, or any other throw-averse first baseman. He was fucking with a bad motherfucker third baseman. And so he was out by three country miles. Thanks, Vlad.
A few insurance runs made this one go down easily in the 9th, and now we can give ourselves a hand while not going and sucking each others' dicks just yet.
(Well, maybe, maybe not. The 45 King's 2 a.m. text ["GAY FOR LESTER"] was merely the most overtly homoerotic Sox love message I received. I replied, "Gay for Bay." It's a special time of year.)
But I love Matsuzaka as my house money pitcher much more than as a pitcher of need. The Angels are a good but deeply mortal team with 100 wins fattened largely on the least competitive division in baseball. This could be fun.
First off, wow. That was something, and in all fairness to Jon Lester, that was something I did not expect to see. Pitcher struggling with strike zone and walks hits strike one 20 out of 29 times, giving up 2 walks, pitching his first ever complete game. (Albeit with a dangerous 130 pitches. Tito, what were you thinking?)
And, um, oh yeah. No hits. None. Nine strikeouts, a lot of weak groundballs and popups, one of which nearly dived to the ground:
But, yeah, it was against the Royals. So what? Do it yourself. Fuck you, stupid bitter Yankee fans. If Wang no-hit the Padres in interleague play, I'd hardly mention that they were the Padres. The luck necessary alone with all the poorly hit balls that can end up in unplayable sections of the field (I remember a swinging bunt breaking up John Maine's no-no bid the next-to-last day of the season last year) or the killer bloop (akin to what Ellsbury somehow snatched) make any no-hitter against any team an accomplishment.
Having pitched a World Series clinching game and a no-hitter, I'd like to again suggest that this might be an opportunity for us to move on from the The Boy Who Lived plotline that the media have tacked onto him, and which Jon Lester himself desires. The first sentence of the Herald article on last night says all:
Ever since receiving word that he had defeated lymphoma a year-and-a-half ago, Jon Lester has been trying to do everything within his power to shed the unsought labeling of being the pitcher who survived cancer.
It says all especially because the fucking sentence does plenty to keep the unsought label on!
The AP's first two graphs:
BOSTON, May 19 -- Jon Lester has survived cancer and pitched a World Series clincher for the Boston Red Sox.
Now he can add a no-hitter to his already amazing list of accomplishments.
Accomplishments? That's survival you're fucking talking about, not an "accomplishment." Cancer didn't give him a trophy. He didn't get a Most Valuable Player Who Had Cancer trophy last year. (Mike Lowell would have deserved it more anyway.) To the Globe's credit, they did not mention cancer until paragraph 3, and again, in the "he wants to be remembered for more" context.
So, yeah, respect his wishes already and stop talking about his near-death experience so cavalierly and unendingly, Author. I mean, Arthur. Lester's pitched well enough to be more than a human interest story, okay? Find a boy in a well.
Luckily for the Sox, nobody could for Doc Halliday, Deadly Cy Young Doctor of the North. And wow, has his team continually fucked him. As badly as Bob Costas' "moderation" fucked Will Leitch. Four straight complete games for Roy Halliday (!), three losses (!?!&$@$#). His ERA is 3.26. His record is 2-4. Remember this the next time you hear an idiotic announcer talk about a pitcher's will to win: Halliday could have pitched a 12-inning complete game and still have lost.
(Although by that point, someone I do not trust in close games would have probably been on the mound, so maybe Roy should've just shut the Sox down another inning and then three more after that. Whaddaya, Doc, a pussy?)
Two runs in three games is disturbing no matter the high quality of starting pitching the Red Sox may be facing (wait, did I just call Edwin Jackson a quality starting pitcher?), but all the same, yesterday's game was taut, fun, brief (2 hours, 18 minutes) and ultimately fulfilling.
Jon Lester had his customary bunch of walks; he was also almost unhittable, and got through 8 innings under 100 pitches. Of course, Lester being Lester, you watched wondering if it was going to fall apart any minute, particularly feeling the pressure of Halliday's dominance continue (the first time in the game two base runners were on in the same inning was, yes, the 9th inning). Papelbon had a right to his relief after the amazing diving stop Pedroia made to save the game, and stop Troy Glaus from scoring on Vernon Wells' hot shot (almost) through the hole, a dive reminiscent of the one Dustin saved Clay Bucholz's no-hitter with.
And then, of course, Halliday proved mortal, and with his first walk of the day, a Manny Ramirez single to center that would have been a shallow fly-out if Wells wasn't practically playing on the triangle, and Youkilis' liner through the middle, his chance to win passed away. "This is funny," he remarked, looking at his boots lying at his bed. Good game, Doc. Not looking forward to the next time.
This is a flu vaccine. Everyone should get them, especially major league baseball players. The flu that has taken down so many Sox and left us with the odd spectacle of Kevin Cash, everyday catcher, took down Daisuke Matsuzaka, bringing in Jon Lester on three day's rest. Jon Lester wasn't so good on three days' rest, although the game was in winnable range.
This is human growth hormone. He was on it when he had his one above average year, and yesterday, swung the bat as though he was back on it. Of course, its real effects are considered negligible, marijuana to steroids' heroin, except for surface-level aesthetic purposes. But still, when you think of Gary Matthews, you're thinking of either human growth hormone, the catch that made a 4th outfielder rich, or the contract itself:
Last night was a game that was winnable, in any case, but we didn't. Craig Hansen made a mistake to GMJr., but his slider looked like the one we drafted, so yes, I'm drooling at the prospect of him taking Mike Timlin's innings by season's end. Today, our rotation is still out of sync as we bring in Justin Masterson for his first start above AA; love the guy, don't love the timing of bringing him in against a team currently batting .300. Think we're gonna need a little more offense today. Think I need to stop writing now to listen to the game.
Hey, Kason, there's no need for that. I like you, in concept: drafted in the deep double digit rounds, a veteran in the system at 25 (just a year and a month younger than me, which makes any rookie sympathetic to my quickly-aging leather ass), Gabbard gets ground balls with a nice sinker. Last night he even struck some Royals out on his way to a complete-game shutout, an impressive game against any competition. (Kansas City is 19th in the majors in runs scored: not great, not shabby.) Whatever value you contribute, as a starter or maybe a long reliever, is nice, with whatever team you may ultimately land with if the Red Sox can trade you for value. I'm not a hater. I'm a hoper.
What I was hoping for is that Clay Bucholtz would rushed up to the majors for a cup o' coffee start, or that Jon Lester was pitching well enough in Pawtucket to get promoted already. Instead, Clay made his AAA debut yesterday (not great numbers, but he looked pretty good), and Lester is walking a ridiculous number of batters, 4+ per 9 innings. As a friend of mine put it, he needs to put the CAN back in CAN-cer recovery.
But Kason, you proved me wrong for a start. My bad. I won't miss you when Curt finally takes his slot back in the rotation, but I won't mind seeing you again either, in Boston or elsewhere.
Listening to the Dan Patrick show, now cancer-free lefty Jon Lester talks about the humor required to get through lymphoma, or better still, the IMMENSE comic potential yet untapped in cancer. Unfortunately, Lester doesn't really relate much of how they spun tumors into ticklers: all that's really notable is that apparently Josh Beckett was the first to play the cancer card, saying something like, "Hey, some time when you don't have cancer, we need to go hunting."
Now, anyone who's read Bang The Drum Slowly knows that you go hunting with your teammate when he first has a fatal disease, or lie to your manager about having gone hunting with him when really you were at the Mayo Clinic, but that's not the point. The point is, Beckett has discovered a pretty good excuse for putting off anything.
"Hey, Jon, some time when you don't have cancer, we should really give you a contract extension."
"Hey, Jon, some time when you don't have cancer, we should talk about that other guy I'm bonestorming."
"Hey, Jon, some time when you don't have cancer, I should give you a hug. Not before then, though. I know it's not contagious like that, I just think cancer smells like day-old donuts and one of those gross new Doritos flavors. Like, ewww."
"Hey, Jon, some time when we finally come up with a cure for cancer, I'll pay my half of the rent. I mean, some time when you don't have cancer. Whatever."
I could go on for days, but I've got a headache. (Finish tired Kindergarten Cop joke here.)
