Don't Die Just Yet (and, predictions)

Apologies for being away a ways, all; just returned from a vacation in New Orleans that was...too good. I'm bitching and moaning at 39 degree weather in the Brooklyn mornings and wondering why liquor isn't available at all hours (and MD 20/20 isn't available in all flavors), and none of that is much me. But at least the time away distracted me slightly from baseball.



Those nice new roadies are looking worse with every passing loss, and this is a dispiriting start, but the time for panic isn't nigh just yet. Games have been largely close, Jon Lester's woes have been largely in 2 particular innings pitched with 10 runs, and they've had chances to win every game they've lost. Excepting last night. Gasp. That's some pretty lame excusage, eh?



That being said, I still have to give up my predictions for the year, as made 12 days ago. (The Professor and Lasko can confirm the date mark.) I want to move the Rays up, and the Royals down, and am obviously feeling shakier than ever about the Sox, but I'm duty-bound. It's gotta get better from here, all. There just isn't that much room to fail harder.

AL CENTRAL
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers (Gallaraga's a horse, and Verlander has to come back to form at some point. Otherwise, how was this team so good and young and talented for most of one season, and so meh since? Also, anxiety disorders can't be tested with blood tests, you fucking Tiger PR donks. Free Dontrell!)
4. Royals (I'm not saying the Royals will be "the next Rays!" as some baseballers have. I'm saying that Greinke could well win the Cy this year, Gordon is learning, and the impending friendship of Coco Crisp and Kyle Farnsworth...well, that's my next sitcom pitch once I sell "Barry and Gary.")
5. White Sox (Also could be the Tigers here. But nothing burns so brightly as a mediocre team with Ozzie as manager.)

AL WEST
1. Angels (I want to pick the A's. I really want to pick the A's. I think this one will be down to the wire. I think the Angels are just good enough, and that Matt Holliday is playing for Oakland a year ahead of when he should.)
2. A's (Could be another big three or so in the rotation coming; like bad Polish food, though, they need seasoning.)
3. Rangers
4. Mariners (old Griffey will hit 3-9 HRs total in Safeco.)

NL EAST
1. Mets (Also for the 3rd year in a row. Having basically fixed their cause for downfall from last year, what will go wrong this year? Find out!)
2. Phillies (I gave them the WC before I realized, I don't think Cole Hamels is going to be healthy this year.)
3. Braves (Lowe could win a lot of games this year, if not over the whole contract.)
4. Marlins (in the new stadium, they will be the Miami Marlins. Now all they need to do is move to the AL, and lose to the Cubs in the World Series in a few years, and Back to the Future II will be prophetic.)
5. Nationals (I think in the spirit of Julian Tavarez's comments, I'll be calling this team 600 pound J. Lo for awhile.)

NL CENTRAL
1, Cubs (Not as many wins as last year. Zambrano's going to have a 14-13, 4.35, too many walks sort of year. Fukudome still sucks, but the Horry Cow shirt seems to be less popular at least.)
2. Brewers
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5, Astros
6. Pirates

NL WEST
1. Diamondbacks (One pick I might change, but I just feel like they have more upside than the Dodgers as a whole, and year 2 of the Webb/Haren combo will be still better than year 1. I'd be more at ease with this pick if LA hadn't resigned Furcal. I dunno.)
2. Dodgers (WC)
3. Giants (who could sneak up on everyone in this division and actually be dangerous in the playoffs. They'll take the Hitless Wonders throne away from the 1906 White Sox.)
4. Rockies
5. Padres (worst record in baseball)

Divisional Series
Red Sox beat Angels (as easy a phrase to write as Rock beats Scissors)
Yankees beat Indians (5 games, Carmona is as awful as he was awesome in the 2007 ALDS)

Diamondbacks beat Mets (5 games. Webb wins two, Haren loses game 2, wins game 5.)
Cubs beat Dodgers (Payback, motherfuckas!)

Championship Series

Red Sox beat Yankees in 5 (crucial play of Game 5 is a bases loaded off-the-glove error by Jeter to let in the winning run in the 12th. New York tabloids publish no paper the day after, in shock. A-Rod rejoices in relief.)

Diamondbacks beat Cubs in 6

World Series

Red Sox beat Diamondbacks in 5 (a series forgotten as quickly as it's played, marking 6 years since a World Series made it 6.)

MVPs:
G. Sizemore (since I've been picking him since he was born)
M. Ramirez (Pujols will have better numbers, but this will also be a lifetime achievement award)

CYs:
Francisco Liriano (was great down the stretch. and I had to make an unsafe pick.)
T. Lincecum (kid is sick)

Rookies:
Elvis Andrus
Cameron Maybin

Comeback Player of the Year
Dennis Ray "Oil Can" Boyd

Spring Training--Quick Darts.

ITEM! The inevitable begins. I see a murder-suicide involving Dusty Baker one of these days. (However, the gunman is going to be Mark Prior.)

ITEM! Baseball Prospectus and CHONE projections are out, and a few things are apparent, if you take these at face value (which, of course, you should not):

1) Holy fucking shit is the AL East a loaded division this year.

The Orioles stand to get better if not win more games, the Blue Jays are a pesky .500ish squad for as long as they choose not to trade Roy Halladay (note: not long), and as for the top three, we needn't say more.

The Yankees and Sox project well in both models, as well as within two games of each other in both models. This could be a good 'un.

2) The NL East ain't shabby either.

Three good teams, one good race, one big problem (it's the National League) which renders them all 91-87 win teams.

3) These ain't your daddy's Angels. Unless your daddy remembers when they sucked.

I saw an earlier version of the BP model where the A's won the division with 82 or 83 wins...did someone just bitch out, or was Bobby Abreu that much of a game changer? (Him and his awesome glove, I mean?)

In any case, the West seemingly ain't what it used to be, but the Angels look just good enough for it, although a Matt Holliday-enhanced Oakland youth movement seems dangerous to me. They do look up to another first-round playoff loss though. The more things change...

4) Best race in baseball: the race for 6th place!

CHONE has the Astros losing a measly 90 games to be their lowest ranked and least-winning team; BP sees something even more exciting, with the 'Stros and Pirates battling all year long to delve the depths, and the Pirates finally losing 98 games to beat Houston out. Woo!

(Additionally, this is why I like BP's model: it doesn't have everything falling or rising to the mean and instead actually takes some chances.)

Also, the Indians are back. Hard luck season last year, no surprise there for me. Will I pick Grady Sizemore for MVP for the 4th straight year? Wait and see.



ITEM! Josh Beckett is back....to KILL! Well, this remains to be seen, but when you consider just how early the misfortunes of 2008 began for my namesake, it's amazing he had the season he did.

If he stays healthy enough, perhaps taking a DL vacation in July, Beckett's 2009 will make up for any problems Jon Lester has bouncing back from a hefty innings load in 2008. If he doesn't, there are problems.

If both are healthy and powerful, and I say this with respect to forces acquired by the New York Blackwaters, there will be no AL East race. That's not so much a big statement as it is a big if.

ITEM! The Boston media, like the rest of us, has no idea how the Bard-Wakefield pairing is going to work out, but hey, one start, so good?

Ideally, I'd like to see Varitek take a few Wakefield starts (partially in penance) and a more flexible, 60/40 arrangement between the two catchers, but we'll see how Tito does making actual decisions about catching for the first time. If anyone can balance 'Tek's ego and pride to the realities of age, it's him.



ITEM! Manny Ramirez will be a Dodger, or Scott Boras will lose clientele ultimately. At some point, you just can't invent more generous offers and bullshit and waste your client's time. $25 million this year, the possibility of $20 million next, but year #2 is on you? Sign. Play problem-free for a season, Manny, and mayhaps you'll get an actual multi-year deal in 2010. Don't, and, see Abreu, Bobby.

Prediction.

Beckett will be back. His stuff was fine in Game 3 of the ALCS, now it's a matter of command.

Seriously, would you bet against this man? With all that cash, flames, and death around him?

Sox in 6.

PREDICTIONS: Boston versus New York once-a-*&%#ing-gain

Unbelievable that the MLB schedule has pushed me to have to make my season predictions with a week to go in March (and that the Red Sox are playing a two-game series that counts in the standings between two exhibition series, placing them in a weird preseason/season middle zone), but with less than a full feel for the league, here we go all the same.

Then again, I didn't feel that confident when I made disturbingly good picks last year. Let's give it a whirl, again, in reverse divisional order of importance.



AAAA Central

1. ChiCubs (proving money can win you a pennant...a mediocre division pennant)

2. Milwaukee (third place if this happens)

3. Reds

4. Cardinals

5. Colt .45s (Miguel Tejada's looked awful in the field...think he can learn LF by year's end?)

6. Pirates (now under GMership that seems to have a clue, but in the short term, no number of fish can save Pittsburgh)



AAAA West

1. Diamonded Backs (last year, they did it with smoke and mirrors; this year, they do it with Haren, the reanimated corpse of Randy Johnson, and just enough of an improved offense)

2. Rocktober Blood (Wild Card. Who cries for you, Kaz Matsui?)

3. Padres (Friends of mine have bet the under in a hypothetical bet on Mark Prior getting 25 starts. I'd bet the under on 20. The ghosts of Prior and Kerry Wood's arms haunt Dusty Baker's dreams.)

4. Dodgers (My guess is that Joe Torre took the Dodger job explicitly to get the chance to start running Scott "Gasoline" Proctor's arm into the ground. Over/under on Proctor appearances: somewhere in the mid-80s.)

5. The Now Barry Bonds/"Steroids"-Free San Francisco Giants! (With 70% more Who Gives A Shit About This Team!)



AL West

1. L.A. California Anaheim Angels (Dave Chappelle doppleganger Torii Hunter isn't going to be a difference maker, but you'll think this team is headed for the World Series at some point during the year, and you will be wrong.)

2. Ancient Mariners

3. Walker, Texas Rangers

4. Oakland A's (It's not the end of Moneyball. It's rebuilding. Now let Jeremy Brown grow fat(ter) and happy in peace.)



AAAA East

1. CitiCorp Metropolitans of Greater New York City (Pedro has looked really good at moments in Spring Training and is throwing up to 95 mph. John Maine and Oliver Perez are inconsistent, but put together are 1.25 consistent good pitchers. And, um, pitches will occasionally get in the way of Carlos Delgado's incredibly slow bat.)

2. Philadelphia Philadelphians

3. Atlanta Chief Nokahomas (The remains of Tom Glavine are back. Swell. [Could no one find Steve Avery?])

4. Florida Fish

5. Washington Nationales (The Meat Hook and Elijah Dukes on the same team? There will be blood. [But if there isn't, good pickup. I'm serious.])



AL Central

1. Cleveland Injuns (C.C.'s last season; better make it count this time)

2. Detroit Tigres (Wild Card here, but a popular pick for the division. I'm not quite feeling it; Renteria's numbers will dovetail a bit in his return to the AL, where he wasn't so good for a season the readers of this blog might remember too well, and Miguel Cabrera has some pitchers to learn himself; Sheffield will miss at least 20 games with various injuries, likely more, and probably won't hit as much for power as his swing slows; the back of the rotation sure could use an Andrew Miller; and most frightening of all, the bullpen is presently Todd Jones, and pray for an official game rainout, the sort of bullpen that may require them to score 1000 runs this year. This is a potentially very good team. It's also something of a, y'know, paper tiger.)

3. ChiSox (Not because they're good or anything, but because the rest of this division ChiSux.)

4. Minnie Twinnies (Over/Under on Francisco Liriano starts: 25. I'm going under.)

5. Kansas City Royals (Now in powder blue. And they signed Jose Guillen. Whoop-dee-damn-doo.)



AL East

1. Boston Medias Rojas (Everything you loved last year, plus the hope of a regular season performance from J.D. Drew resembling his postseason, a regular season performance resembling anything from Julio Lugo, a slight jump from Jacoby Ellsbury over my still-beloved Coco Crisp [Red Sox career R.I.P....I hear Tampa Bay's on line 2 making an offer], and the thrill of what Daisuke can deliver after a year making the big adjustments. Losing Schilling for at least half a year isn't too concerning with a team this pitching-deep. Justin Masterson will boost the bullpen by July as well.)

2. New York Highlanders (It's great that Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu showed up to camp in good shape. Too bad they also showed up a year older. Rebuilding in the Bronx has a hideous, stitched together look, like something out of Re-Animator, where a live limb (Phillip Hughes' right arm), a half-dead limb (Ian Kennedy's #4 starter stuff right arm) and rotting flesh (Mike Mussina) combine to form a monstrous back of the rotation. Or is that middle of the rotation? Joba or not, it's the same old story albeit in a positive direction: this team can slug, this team can't pitch. Not yet, anyway.

3. Tampa Bay De-Deviled Rays (Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA has them for 86 wins. I don't go that far, but this is actually a damn good team. Now.)

4. Toronto B'Jays

5. B. O's


Playoffs

Red Sox beat Tigers
Angels beat Indians

Mets beat Rockies
D'Backs beat Cubs

Red Sox beat Angels (badly, as usual.)
Mets beat D'Backs

And in yet another New York v. Boston sports event, as the rest of the nation moans, the Red Sox repeat in six games over the Mets.

I'm not picking awards this year. Except AL MVP. Grady Sizemore. I've picked him every year of the last three, and I refuse to not pick him the year it finally happens, damnit.

Halftime. (Almost.)

77 games down, 85 to go, which places us almost at the true midseason point, 9.5 games up, on a 100(.44)-win pace. Good times. And also a good time to check my preseason predictions, which you can find here. I have few/no predictive powers normally, although I'm at least in good shape and not paid to make bad predictions. AND, this year I seem to know what I'm doing so far. Let's look it over.

AAA East

Predicted Winner: Illadelphia.
Current Leader: NY Dodgers-Giants Replacement Franchise.
Teams in exact predicted order: 3/5.

--I didn't think the Mets had the pitching, and if trends continue...they don't. This is a fun three-way pennant chase, and absurd as Jimmy Rollins' prediction seemed when the Phillies started off awful, they may be the most balanced team in the division. This division could go any which way. As for Florida and Washington, only the delusional could pick them anything but 4th-5th.

AAAA Central

Predicted Winner: Houston Colt .45s.
Current Leader: Milwaukee.
Teams in exact predicted order: 1/6.

For the record, I said I had no idea what would happen here, so at least I predicted my awful predictions. What a shitty division this is, and what a fun team the Brewers are to watch. You've gotta love Prince Fielder, infamously mentioned as the player too fat for even Oakland to select in Moneyball, and watching him hit an inside the park HR ranks high on this year's highlights so far. They very well may be a team worth pissing yourself over. And it sure beats the other way of pissing yourself in Milwaukee: getting too drunk on PBR and losing control of everything. Things have improved since I made fun of the city six years ago.

Two predictions I will take pride are the general descent of St. Louis, and my one right pick, the 2nd place Cubs. The guy who started this site before the year even began is still an ass though.

AAAA West

Predicted Winner: Arizona.
Current Leader: San Diego.
Teams in exact predicted order: 0/5.

Not as bad as it looks, since the top three teams are essentially tied for first. Did I call the AAAA East a fun pennant chase? Lookee here. The only thing I'm annoyed about is underrating the Rockies, since I knew the San Francisco/New York/BALCO Giants were gonna suck; I didn't predict suckage of this degree, however, and underestimated the Rox, who very well may have a future. They sure buzzsawed the Sox and Yankees in interleague play.

AL West

Predicted Winner: Los Angeles/Anaheim.
Current Leader: Los Angeles/Anaheim.
Teams in exact order: 2/4.

I blame the Red Sox here, because were it not for the sweep to the Trident, I'd be 4/4 and be a golden god.

AL Central

Predicted Leader: Cleveland.
Current Leader: Detroit.
Teams in exact order: 3/5.

Detroit just overtook Cleveland by a half-game. Minnesota is as middling as I thought, the ChiSox just as far into their collapse. I am a golden demi-god?

AL East

Predicted Leader: Boston.
Current Leader: Boston.
Teams in exact order: 3/5.

I did have the balls to finally predict an end to the Sox's wild card run, a dynasty of regular season defeat, but this is all about the Yankees. No one, especially not Joe Morgan (see 6/26) could have predicted the Yankees' collapse. I predicted that Pavano-Pettite-Mussina couldn't stay healthy (right), that Clemens wasn't coming back (wrong, but considering the 5+ ERA he's sporting right now, esoterically right), and that Hughes wasn't ready this year (TKO), so pitching would hold them down. It has. The offensive collapse? Not predicted. A-Rod becoming the Good Yankee? Definitely not, even if it is essentially a contract year. Project A13 shouldn't shut down just yet though.

Prediction: I will leave the office for happy hour at Barcade....now.

Predictions: Pain.

Not only is it a couple hours from the end of the work week, it's less than sixty hours from the start of the season, making every minute longer than in a boring section of Ulysses. To stop crawling out of my skin, I'm putting down my predictions, done as per annual tradition with a couple of my oldest friends. My predictions will prove to suck as badly as anyone else's (other than Steve Phillips or Joe Morgan), but I don't do it for the accuracy. Or the money. I do it for the love. The love of passing about an hour at work.

There's only one prediction I will guarantee. Pain.

No, I mean, like, PAIN:



In reverse order of genuine significance:

AAAA Central*
Houston
Rich Section of Chicago
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

(*- This is one big, mediocre division. I'll admit I barely know what the fuck I'm talking about here, but I had to pick someone.)

AAAA West
Arizona
San Diego
Los Angeles/Brooklyn
San Francisco/New York/BALCO
Colorado

AL West
Los Angeles/Anaheim
Oakland
Seattle
Texas

AAAA East
Illadelphia+
N.Y. Dodgers-Giants Replacement Franchise (WILD CARD)
ATL
Florida/Las Vegas
Washington

(+The Mets have bigger problems than people think. Their #2 starter is older than Jesus.)

AL Central^
Cleveland
Detroit
Minnesota (sheds a tear for Francisco Liriano)
Gentrifiying Section of Chicago
Kansas City/Portland, OR?

(^It's all about C.C. Sabathia's health; this could be the best pennant race if the Tigers' pitching is as young as I think it still is.)

AL East
Boston
N.Y. Highlanders nee Yankees (WILD CARD)@
Toronto
Charm/Crack City
Tampa Bay/Las Vegas

(@I went back and forth on this, as I don't think I've ever picked the Red Sox to win the division before, actually. I think the Yankees have bigger SP issues than they think, especially since Hughes isn't going to be ready to be Roger Clemens this year, Roger Clemens [prediction] ain't coming back, and good luck keeping Pavano-Pettite-Mussina healthy at the same time. Close wild card race with the Tigers.)

OCTOBER
--Cleveland beats NYY
--Boston beats LAA

--Arizona beats NYM
--Philly beats Houston

--Boston beats Cleveland
--Arizona beats Philly

Boston beats Arizona

(Note: the Mets make the World Series if Pedro comes back in good form [big if], and Cleveland has a real chance of beating Boston and taking it all.)

MISC.
Cy Young: Oswalt, and why not Santana again.
MVP: Wright-or-Reyes, J.D. Drew. (psych! Grady Sizemore)

Worst team: the Nationals will be bad enough to cause Washington's famed cherry blossom trees to all decay and die in the same summer.

Most likely team I've picked to do good to, in fact, suck: the Diamondbacks. I'm choosing to believe the hype, I guess; if Greg Maddux pitches anything like last year and David Wells is able to stay off refined sugars and take his shots, the Padres could easily win the West.

Predictive note: Last year, I did predict Papelbon would solve the Red Sox bullpen woes, the Cardinals would make the World Series, beating the Mets on their way there. I also gave Josh Beckett the Cy Young, Grady Sizemore the MVP (I only looked at last year's predictions a minute ago; I think I've got almost as big a crush on Grady as the droves of dumpy Cleveland women who hold up MARRY ME, GRADY! signs) and the Red Sox the World Series, but only after talking myself out of giving it all to the A's. In other words, none of this is happening. But wouldn't it be nice?